MLB picks for July 4th

The Atlanta Braves are a force of nature.

The best team in baseball has won 15 of its past 16 games entering Monday, it’s one loss being an 11-10, extra-inning one to the red-hot Cincinnati Reds.

Since June 14, the Braves led the league in wRC+ with a 161 mark (producing runs at a 61 percent higher rate than the average MLB team).

In that time, Atlanta was third in bullpen ERA at 2.37, and its relievers had struck out over 30 percent of the 248 batters faced. 

Braves vs. Guardians prediction

(7 p.m. ET.)

On June 28, Kolby Allard provided a solid outing for a rotation looking for answers.

He held the Twins scoreless over 4²/₃ innings, striking out eight while walking only one.

The Twins are not a good offense.

But neither are Tuesday’s opponents, the Guardians, who boast some of the worst batting statistics among MLB teams this season. 

And I’m still cautious about believing in Shane Bieber.

He’s a pitcher who tends to over-perform his expected statistics.

Still, I believe he’s finally seeing some regression with three blowup starts over the past month (seven earned runs vs. Baltimore, five ER vs. Arizona, four ER vs. Milwaukee). 

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The Braves are far more dangerous than any team Bieber has faced this year.

Meanwhile, Allard and a dominant Atlanta bullpen should hold the Guards at bay over nine innings.

The result: A convincing Braves victory. 

Wager accordingly. 

THE PLAY: Braves -140 (BetMGM).

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